The ease with which ideas are being put forward promising the most dangerous military conflict for the region can not help but surprise. Although, as a matter of fact, it is sheer lunacy, not only political but also clinical. Just one look at a map is enough to realize: a military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities would close the South Asian ‘crisis circuit’. The Russian nuclear physicist Alexander Koldobskiy draws attention to it. Its western part is formed by the countries of the Mediterranean (junction of Israel, Syria, Palestine, Jordan, and Lebanon); in the center there are Iraq and Iran. To the east – the nuclear, politically unstable Pakistan, as well as Afghanistan, whose leadership now controls its own palace only.
But would the 70 million-strong Iran, a pretty powerful state, sit idly by? A certain plot of the Apocalypse is emerging even from the superficial set of components. In any case, in this part of the world a socio-political ‘black hole’ will appear with negative consequences. And all this is in the region being key to the world economy in terms of providing carbon resources. It is hard to imagine at what level the oil price would be then, Koldobskiy notices.
Israel has ‘advanced’ farthest in its plans – it says we will strike on Iran, and will ask no one, even the USA. But at this point here is Obama’s remark: all the same inform us. No, Tel Aviv is capricious, there will be no guarantees on this point. Certainly, we are a small country and have not so many airplanes as the US, but we will nevertheless attack Iranian nuclear facilities, until all are destroyed. But the Americans must cover us from the sky, to ensure safe passage.
Fantasies of course tend to take to a dangerous distant place.
The people seem to be not stupid and one can not blame them for incompetence. But real imagination is clearly not enough. One experience of an ‘attack on a nuclear facility’ already exists, and it is worth to be remembered. During the war with Saddam Hussein, Israeli aircraft destroyed the Iraqi nuclear research reactor by bombing, which had been built by the Soviet Union in due time. Fissile materials were depressurized, and the ruins, of course, caused the serious radiation background. Then they were hastily filled up with sand. There was little use in it, but all those who participated in this populous operation began slowly to move away to another world. Urgently the French experts were called for and spent more than a year out to appease the radiation situation at the former nuclear plant. Naturally, for a fabulous money.
Let us come back to the existing reality. A powerful surge of the Iranian theme was caused by the promulgated in Vienna report of the International Atomic Energy Agency about Iran’s nuclear program. The world’s top nuclear inspector, in fact, admitted that, along with a civilian nuclear power program, Iran has also secretly solved military tasks.
The IAEA report made the USA, France, Germany and Great Britain issue statements on the need to tighten up sanctions against Iran to a maximum. As for Russia, in the person of Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, it confirmed its earlier opinion: sanctions against Iran have been exhausted, and “now the problem should be solved through diplomatic channels.” Moscow believes that the only way out may be through the resumption of negotiations between the Six (which includes Russia, China, the USA, the UK, France, Germany) and Iran. Also China is not going to bring a tightened sanctions instrument into action.
Washington was pleased that Tehran was ‘seized by the arm’ after all. Here it is, a real occasion and a chance to promote the age-old American plan of Freedom of Iran, which, of course, does not rule out a power stroke. However, does Obama need a third war, when at least two are already around his neck?
But Tel Aviv is determined: “Israel is inclined to a military solution to the Iranian threat more than to a diplomatic solution to the problem,” said the president of the country, Shimon Peres. The country’s own ‘atomic bomb in the pocket’, the presence of which has been persistently hushed up, clearly spirits up the country. Israel argues its position – without striking a blow, there will have been 5 Iranian nuclear bombs by April, and then, they say, the situation will be irreversible. But the world knows something else: exactly nuclear weapons provides a parity. Maybe Iran seeks to acquire it because it feels little sympathy and assurances of peace, especially in the region?
Obama, of course, will not keep out if Tel Aviv goes to military action against Iran, for it is only possible in tandem. Besides - a new gigantic financial burden on the existing unfavorable background ... True, all will be paid off over time: Iran’s oil revenues will flow into the budgets of the Anglo-American oil companies. And also - the absolute power lead.
The European Union understands the adventurous component of the undertaking. “Any military intervention in Iran would create a ‘spiral of uncontrollable events’. This statement was made on November 14, by French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe after a meeting of the foreign ministers of EU countries in Brussels. He stressed that “attacks on the country in connection with the ongoing implementation of its atomic research program” will be the worst of all possible solutions.” Juppe said that “unprecedented sanctions in scope” are quite enough, which would prevent the Iranians from further developing the nuclear program. In this he was also supported by French Defence Minister Gerard Longuet. UK Foreign Secretary William Hague said that the United Kingdom does not address the possibility of attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities, although stressed that any solutions for the problem can not be ruled out.
As reported by open information sources, the list of alleged Iranian targets, long ago published by western military experts and analysts, is quite impressive: an uranium enrichment plant at Natanz, the Saghande uranium mines, the plant to produce heavy water at Arak, the Esfahan uranium conversion facility, the Tehran Research Center, the Bushehr nuclear power plant, as well as radioactive waste repository near settlements of Karai and Anarak, molybdenum and iodine radioisotopes plant; in addition - Shahab cruise missiles bases, command, control and communications facilities of intelligence services, airbases, power plants, dams, highways and bridges, civil airports, railways, etc.
Besides political and economic consequences, also environmental ones can shock. Quite possible element of escalation may be attacks on Iranian oil fields. Horrific fires at the oil wells, pipelines and port terminals, large-scale oil spills, subsequent total pollution of absolutely all elements of the ecosystems, the degradation and destruction of the entire biocenoses - in general, an ecological catastrophe.
As explained by the scientist, in the scenarios of the possible effect of a strike on Iran one can not rule out the subject of radiation effects: because they will strike primarily on nuclear facilities. The isotopic enrichment works which are currently underway in Isfahan are not possible without the conversion of uranium for its subsequent use in gas centrifuges (Natanz). In both cases, the destruction of the enterprise can lead to serious consequences, because fluoride and its compounds chemical toxicity is too high.
There are also two research nuclear reactors in Iran. One of them, in the Isfahan nuclear center has a small amount of radioactive material. It is a nuclear reactor at Tehran University that is dangerous – its thermal power is greater than 5 MW. In case of contact of a missile capable to destroy the core, to depressurize fuel elements in the repository, this reactor may well cause local contamination.
But also in this case, the significant radiation damage, serious radioecological consequences are out of the question. In any case, they pale in comparison to other effects of possible strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities - environmental, political, and economic. Koldobskiy believes them to be able to buy such a scale which will give the right to call this adventure full of madness.